Arbitrage Betting Sites

Arbitrage betting – also known as arbs, surebets, miraclebets and surewins – is a technique in which you place bets with different online betting companies in order to cover all of the outcomes of a sporting event to guarantee yourself profit.

• Arbitrage Betting Prediction
• Arbitrage Betting Sites Best
• Arbitrage Betting Sites Against
• Arbitrage Betting Sites

An arb arises when betting companies take an alternative view on the outcomes of a particular sporting event, meaning that they offer different odds to reflect the probabilities. Should you find a situation where bookies disagree by a large enough variance, you could lock in profit regardless of which outcome win.

Because of how a bookie sets their prices, you are guaranteed to lose money if you bet on each outcome within an event at the same bookmaker. For example, backing the favourite to win, underdog to win and the draw in a football match would ensure the bookie rubs their hands with glee as they take your hard-earned cash. This is because the betting company includes an overround in their pricing which gives them an edge as it replaces the true odds of each outcome with their own odds (You can read more about probabilities, odds and overrounds here.

Proven Betting System 2 – Value Betting Value betting is similar to arbitrage betting as it involves exploiting the soft bookmakers. A value bet involves looking for odds that are out of line with the sharp Asian Bookmakers or betting exchanges. Arbitrage betting takes advantage of favourable odds at bookmakers and so by placing arbs, you are taking value away from the bookmaker. Arbing can return high profits on a monthly basis and so to continue to make a profit from arbitrage betting in the long-term, you need to preserve your bookmaker accounts in any way that you can. RebelBetting has put together an outstanding arbitrage betting software package. It has a simple, uncrowded interface, but is packed with all of the necessities for serious arbitrage betting. Despite being incredibly user friendly, it doesn't sacrifice on any of the more advanced features that experienced arbers have come to expect. How do I discover arbitrage betting opportunities? In the phone example above, we mentioned two options: doing manual research or using comparison sites. Now, when it comes to arbing tools, we're speaking about technology that allows us to do the latter — compare prices from across the market without having to spend hours rattling through.

However, comparing the odds for the same sporting event from different betting companies can open up an opportunity because the bookies have an alternative view, or may have made an error. This doesn't mean that a favourite with one bookie becomes the underdog at another, more that there will be a slight difference in the odds that are on offer.

For example, BetVictor could price a Floyd Mayweather Jr win at decimal odds of 1.48 (67.6% implied probability) whereas 888Sport could think he's even more likely to win and offer odds of 1.36 (73.5% implied probability). As a result, the price on his opponent would also change between the two bookies and mean that backing the underdog could see a range between 2.75 (36.4% probability) and 3.25 (30.8% probability). If the numbers add up correctly, you could find that backing Mayweather with BetVictor and his opponent with 888Sport could automatically put you into the green no matter who won the bout.

As shown in this boxing example, generally there is only a slight difference between the prices set by bookmakers. This means that you need to bet with high stakes in order to make any serious money as arbitrage bets typically range between 1% and 10% profit. This could mean that a £1,000 stake would return as little as £10 and as much as £100 which may not be worth the vast amounts of time taken to identify the surebet in the first place. Although the likes of online bookies and odds comparison sites have helped the punter identify arbitrage opportunities, it also means that the bookmakers themselves can use them to spot pricing mistakes or identify if there odds are drastically different. This means that the opportunity for arbing is less than it once was.

Software and bots do exist which identify arbitrage opportunities, however I've personally never used them so couldn't comment on their effectiveness. Instead, we're going to look at how to find arbitrage bets using a manual process, which is actually relatively simple to do, it can just be time consuming. The process is as follows:

1. Using an odds comparison site such as Oddschecker, find a sporting event which offers two outcomes.
2. Find the highest odds available for each outcome from two different bookmakers.
3. Calculate whether the odds represent an arbitrage betting opportunity.
4. If so, calculate the individual stakes you need to bet with at each bookmaker.
5. Place each of the bets.

Arbitrage Betting Prediction

To explain this process further, let's look at a real-life example of a surebet based on the step-by-step approach above. As context, I went to Oddschecker, and after a little while of searching, came across the ATP Indian Wells tennis tournament which had Andy Murray (1.18 highest with Boylesports) as the favourite to win the match against Vasek Pospisil (7.00 highest with SkyBet). Why did this match grab my interest? Well, let me share the below table which gives an indication of the odds you're looking for to potentially identify a surebet.

After noticing that 1.18 and 7.00 looked like a potential arbitrage bet by looking at 1.20 and 6.00 above, the next step is to calculate whether the odds actually represent a surebet. Luckily, there are plenty of online calculators available which do all of the hard work for you. However, we can take a look at the actual calculations to see how things work behind the calculator.

Firstly, if not using an online calculator, you need to work out the arbitrage percentage which identifies whether you have a surebet. As mentioned above, with an individual bookmaker, the total percentage of all outcomes in a sporting bet will add up to greater than 100% due to the overround. Therefore, we are looking for opportunities where all outcomes from different bookies add up to less than 100% as this suggest that the bookies have different opinions on the outcomes. To calculate the arbitrage percentage, you can use the following formula:

Arbitrage % = ((1 / decimal odds for outcome A) x 100) + ((1 / decimal odds for outcome B) x 100)

Andy Murray Win: (1 / 1.18) x 100 = 84.746%

Vasek Pospisil Win: (1 / 7.00) x 100 = 14.286%

84.75% + 14.29% = 99.032% (less than 100%, therefore an arbitrage bet)

Having found a surebet, we then need to calculate the profit we will receive based on the amount of money we are willing to invest. If, for example, you are wanting to place £500 stake on the tennis surebet above, you would calculate the profit using the following formula:

Profit = (Investment / Arbitrage %) – Investment

(£500 / 99.032%) – £500 = £4.89 profit (from £500 stake)

The next step is to calculate how your investment needs to be broken down in terms of stakes across both bets. This is so that you are returning the same profit regardless of which outcome wins. The idea is to return the same profit regardless of whether the first or second outcome is successful, so it is critical to use the correct stakes – if not, you could find that one outcome is more profitable than the other or that you actually lose money if one outcome wins. To calculate the individual stakes:

Individual bets = (Investment x Individual Arbitrage %) / Total Arbitrage %

Andy Murray Stake = (£500 x 84.746%) / 99.032% = £427.87

Vasek Pospisil Stake = (£500 x 14.286%) / 99.032% = £72.13

£427.87 + £72.13 = £500 total stake

You therefore know that to make £4.89 profit from £500 (0.968% profit) you need to place a bet of £427.87 on Andy Murray to win at odds of 1.18 and £72.13 on Vasek Pospisil to win at odds of 7.00. As you can see, this is quite a lot of work for less than £5.00 profit, but as mentioned, online calculators can take a lot of the manual work away from this process.

As an aside, it is also worthwhile knowing how to calculate the stake for outcome B if you know how much you plan to bet on outcome A. Rather than the above approach where we split the total stake (£500) into two bets to guarantee the same profit, we can work out how much to place on outcome B if we have bet £500 just on outcome A. This can be done using the following formula:

Stake for outcome B = Stake for outcome A x (Odds for outcome A / Odds for outcome B)

£500 x (1.18 / 7.00) = £84.29 stake for outcome B

To work out total profit, you would then use the above figures in the following calculations:

Profit if outcome A wins: (stake for outcome A x odds for outcome A) – (total investment)

Profit if outcome B wins: (stake for outcome B x odds for outcome B) – (total investment)

If Murray wins: (£500 x 1.18) – (£500 + £84.29) = £5.71

If Pospisil wins: (£84.29 x 7.00) – (£84.29 + £500) = £5.74

So, by investing £584.29 in this match, you would make a profit of £5.71 if Murray wins or £5.74 if Pospisil wins.

As described above, we've talked about finding surebets by looking at online bookmakers and odds comparison sites to identify the best prices for each outcome in a sporting event. This isn't the only arbing opportunity though – it is also possible to do this via betting exchanges and in betting shops. For instance, you could use the likes of Betfair to back and lay a bet to create a guaranteed profit – along similar lines to trading in the financial markets – although an extra considerations is that you need to factor in the commission for using the service. Similarly, there is also the practice of ‘sharbing' where you are able to create an arbitrage opportunity by using an online bookie for one outcome and a betting shop for the second as shops are usually slower to respond to price changes than online bookies.

Although arbing is not illegal per se, it is viewed very negatively by bookmakers and can often result in bets being cancelled should it be detected. This can have a knock on effect if a bet on outcome A is cancelled with bookie A, but outcome B is not cancelled with bookie B, meaning that you could be seriously out of pocket considering the large stakes at play. Going one step further, it is also not uncommon for betting accounts to be suspended if people are suspected of using surebets. Therefore, heed a word of caution when approaching arbitrage betting despite the promised guaranteed profit on offer.

Ready For More?

Arbitrage betting, also known as 'arbing', 'surebets' or 'value bets', is a relatively simple and extremely effective way of making a guaranteed profit by covering all outcomes of an event. For example, in a tennis match there are two possible outcomes. Either Player 1 wins or Player 2 wins. With the right conditions (the odds being favourable), it is possible to make a profit regardless of the result by placing bets on both players.

In this article we'll be taking a look at how it's possible to lock in a profit from these opportunities, how to find them and how to stay under the radar of the bookies who generally aren't too keen on customers placing arbs.

Arbitrage betting isn't something that you should get into if you have no experience of betting. The majority of people who get into arbing have some experience in either trading or matched betting. Despite being a relatively simple concept, it is possible to lose money if you place bets with the wrong stakes or at the wrong odds. Arbing is a logical progression from matched betting as if you've been matched betting for a while, you will understand how odds and betting exchanges work. You may have also been 'gubbed' by certain bookmakers when matched betting which means you are ineligible to qualify for free bets and other promotions and are looking for another way to make a profit from betting. If so, arbing may be the perfect solution for you since it doesn't require the use of any free bets at all.

Arbitrage betting works by covering all outcomes of an event so that one of your bets wins whatever the result is. There are two ways you can cover all outcomes:

1. Back an outcome with a bookmaker and lay it on a betting exchange
2. Back each outcome with different bookmakers

If you've done matched betting before then you'll be familiar with back and lay bets. It's possible to lock in a profit regardless of the result with this method when the back odds with a bookmaker are greater than the lay odds on the betting exchange.

The example below shows us that 'Spotify' is 5.0 to win the 16:00 Longchamp with Racebets and the lay odds for the same horse on Betfair Exchange are 3.0.

By simply backing this horse at Racebets and laying it on Betfair Exchange, we're able to make a profit whether it wins or not.

To ensure that we make the same profit regardless of the result, we can use an arbing calculator or matched betting calculator to determine the ideal stakes.

As you can see, using a £100 stake with the bookmaker for 'Spotify' to win, if we lay the horse with a stake of £169.49, we will make a profit of £61.02 whether the horse wins or doesn't.

Another arbing method is to only use bookmakers. This can be slightly more time consuming depending on the number of possible outcomes but can be equally profitable.

To keep things simple, let's use a tennis match as an example which has only two possible outcomes.

Below is an example of a profitable arbing opportunity given the odds on each player from two different bookmakers.

If we were to back each player with a single bookmaker, we would end up with a loss. However, if we choose the highest odds from each bookmaker for each player, we are able to lock in a profit.

We need to use an arbing calculator to determine the ideal stakes so that we return the same profit regardless of which player wins the match.

The calculator shows us that using a combined stake (the total stake across the two bets) of £100, if we place a £65 bet on Player 1 to with with Bookmaker A and a £35 bet on Player 2 to win with Bookmaker B, we will make a £4 profit if Player 1 wins and a £5 profit if Player 2 wins.

You can adjust the stakes slightly so that you return exactly the same profit whichever player wins but in this example we have rounded our stakes as recommended by the calculator so that our bets look more natural to a bookmaker. Placing a bet with a stake of £34.67 may raise suspicions that you are arbing and increase the chances of your account being stake limited by the bookmaker at some point.

Arbitrage Betting Sites Best

Finding arbs manually is an extremely difficult process. There may be hundreds if not thousands of sporting events taking place at any one time and tens or hundreds of thousands of markets throughout those events, all with their odds changing frequently. Therefore, the use of some automated software is essential if you want to make sport arbitrage betting profitable based on your time spent doing it. Placing arbs is straight forward and quick but it's the finding them that takes time if done manually.

There are various pieces of arbing software which you can use to find profitable arbs. The costs for these services vary as do the quality of the software but if you choose the right one, the profit you make should more than cover your subscription fee.

If you are mainly searching for back & lay arbing opportunities then a matched betting odds matcher from sites such as ProfitSquad or OddsMonkey may suffice. However, if you want to find the most profitable arbs and arbs where betting exchanges are not required, you should opt for dedicated arbitrage bet finder software. There are many of these about, some of which we have tested ourselves.

Some sport arbitrage betting software which we recommend are:

There are a few things to be aware of when arbing which will minimise the risk of losing money and ensure you're able to return a profit on a long-term basis.

Every now and again you'll come across huge arbs where the odds at one bookmaker are a lot higher than at others. It can be tempting to use these bets to lock in a large amount of profit but be wary of bookmakers miss-pricing bets. It's not uncommon for bookmakers to occasionally make an error when pricing bets and he majority, if not all, will have clauses in their terms and conditions which allow them to void bets which are priced incorrectly due to human error. If you wager on these miss-priced bets and either lay or bet on other outcomes with another bookmaker, you could end up with a loss should your voided bet win.

Use your common sense when determining whether or not the odds are correct. If an arb seems too good to be true, it usually is.

Arbitrage Betting Sites Against

This warning goes for any type of betting whether you are having a punt, matched betting or arbitrage betting. Placing bets with incorrect stakes can cost you money so it is always best to double check your calculations before placing any bets. An arbing calculator will help you determine the correct stakes but it is also useful to understand how stakes are calculated so that you are able to spot obvious errors before it's too late.

It's no secret that bookmakers do not like customers arbing. Arbitrage betting takes advantage of favourable odds at bookmakers and so by placing arbs, you are taking value away from the bookmaker.

Arbing can return high profits on a monthly basis and so to continue to make a profit from arbitrage betting in the long-term, you need to preserve your bookmaker accounts in any way that you can.

The following tips may help you to stay under the bookies radar and mask the fact that you are arbing.

Arbs are available across any sport and market and so it's likely that you'll come across a number of profitable arbs which are on obscure sports which the average punter may not usually bet on.

For example, you may find an arb from which you can make a quick £20 on by covering all outcomes on a Water Polo match in Iceland. However, would you usually bet on Water Polo? Does this bet look natural in the eyes of the bookmaker? If not, then you're at an increase chance of having your account reviewed which could lead to you being stake restricted.

Although we'd recommend staying away from obscure sports and markets, it can be a good idea to look for arbs on sports other than the likes of football or tennis. Lots of arbers jump on these types of arbs as there are usually quite a lot of them about and as there are only 2-3 outcomes, they are very quick and easy to place. Other sports such as boxing and golf are still very popular with punters but less so with arbers. Therefore, your bets are less likely to raise suspicion and you should be able to preserve your accounts for longer.

If you find a profitable arb then it becomes more profitable the more you increase your stakes. However, placing bets dramatically higher than your average stake size with a bookmaker is likely to raise suspicion. Think about the size of your past bets and increase them at a gradual rate rather than jumping from £50 bets to £1,000 bets. By doing so you're a lot more likely to stay under the bookies radar.

Adjusting your bet size depending on the sport and market is also worth considering. If you're average stake on the match result of football matches is £200 then it is unlikely that you would place a £200 bet on a correct score market as these bets usually attract much lower stakes.

Having accounts at multiple bookmakers gives you more options when arbing. Many smaller bookmakers tend to copy the odds from larger bookmakers and so there are plenty of arbing opportunities to take advantage of.

Arbitrage Betting Sites

Also, if you get stake restricted or gubbed with a smaller bookmaker you probably won't be as bothered, whereas if you lose one of your main accounts then you could be missing out on betting promotions and offers over time.

does your betting profile look like that of a regular punter?

Overall, you want the bookmakers to think that you are an average punter and not a bet-savvy arber. Take a step back and look at your bet history. Is it full of bets on unusual sports or markets? If so, you may want to think about diluting some of those bets with regular bets so that if a bookmaker does review your account, they're less likely to think that you are only placing bets to take advantage of their odds.

Mug betting is a term which you will be familiar with if you have done matched betting and it involves placing bets with no intention of making a profit. You can still lay these bets and should only make a small loss on each one. By doing so, you should be able to preserve your accounts for a lot longer and continue to make a profit from arbing despite taking a small hit from mug bets.